ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250321ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 110.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 104.4E, APPROXIMATELY
768 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 251225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OFFSET BY THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS).
STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
250330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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